Will Mikel Brown Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $519 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$518.89

Combined PnL

$3.38

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.3¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$518.02

Total Shares529

Combined PnL+$3.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.87

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$0.03

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.2¢	$501.53	$504.62	+$3.09	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 96¢	$13.14	$13.4	+$0.25	53% 4771-4302 (9073)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.77	$0.78	+$0.02	36% 14275-25592 (39867)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	44% 1388-1765 (3153)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$0.04	+$0.01	57% 12489-9413 (21902)

balthazar

Invested

$501.53

Value

$504.62

PnL

+$3.09

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

korda77<$100

Invested

$13.14

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

4771-4302 (9073)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

14275-25592 (39867)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

1388-1765 (3153)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

12489-9413 (21902)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.