Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 73¢ · $6K held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$6.1K
$860.98
71.9¢ → 73.4¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
1151h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 72.6¢ | $170.19 | $4.8K | +$599.37 | 52% 999-914 (1913) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 79¢ | $233.67 | $695.89 | +$148.84 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 57.2¢ | $435.12 | $554.82 | +$119.7 | 57% 797-607 (1404) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $42.35 | $40.01 | -$0.29 | 18% 3341-15435 (18776) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $18.63 | $11.99 | -$6.64 | 49% 722-757 (1479) |
Invested
$170.19
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$599.37
Record
52%
999-914 (1913)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$233.67
Value
$695.89
PnL
+$148.84
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
paddaaInvested
$435.12
Value
$554.82
PnL
+$119.7
Record
57%
797-607 (1404)
2B9S<$100Invested
$42.35
Value
$40.01
PnL
-$0.29
Record
18%
3341-15435 (18776)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$18.63
Value
$11.99
PnL
-$6.64
Record
49%
722-757 (1479)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.