Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 46¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$4.6K
$2.8K
18.7¢ → 46¢
+146% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA HauchnCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.0K | $2.7K | +$1.7K | 38% 58-96 (154) |
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $801.65 | $1.9K | +$1.1K | 57% 244-187 (431) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $16 | $15.2 | -$0.8 | 46% 109-128 (237) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.