Will Michael Olise finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$49.55

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 96.9¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,511

Combined PnL+$109.22

No2 traders

Total Value$45.4

Total Shares1,052

Combined PnL-$59.66

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 93.5¢	$739.09	$773	+$33.91	89% 4362-538 (4900)
StarMaster	Yesavg 86.4¢	$431.85	$485	+$51.65	53% 1800-1592 (3392)
Socialista	Yesavg 87.1¢	$192.48	$216.14	+$23.66	63% 2530-1502 (4032)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Noavg 12.8¢	$38.28	$28.87	-$28.38	40% 156-237 (393)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$47.82	$16.54	-$31.28	51% 1620-1575 (3195)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$739.09

Value

$773

PnL

+$33.91

Record

89%

4362-538 (4900)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$431.85

Value

$485

PnL

+$51.65

Record

53%

1800-1592 (3392)

Socialista

Yes

Invested

$192.48

Value

$216.14

PnL

+$23.66

Record

63%

2530-1502 (4032)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Invested

$38.28

Value

$28.87

PnL

-$28.38

Record

40%

156-237 (393)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$47.82

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$31.28

Record

51%

1620-1575 (3195)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.