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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoYes
TimeTravelerCTR<$100YesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Michael Olise finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$106.3
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares928
Combined PnL-$106.3
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 86%No — 14%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $38.46 | — | -$105.58 | 53% 16-14 (30) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.72 | — | -$0.72 | 54% 302-257 (559) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 20216-12621 (32837) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 45% 2698-3242 (5940) |
TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 41% 1925-2728 (4653) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2372-2159 (4531) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 42% 1262-1766 (3028) |
NI
niceqqqqq3CTR<$100Invested
$38.46
Value
—
PnL
-$105.58
Record
53%
16-14 (30)
0X
0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100Invested
$0.72
Value
—
PnL
-$0.72
Record
54%
302-257 (559)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
20216-12621 (32837)
BI
BiggggggggCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
2698-3242 (5940)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1925-2728 (4653)
ME
merodCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2372-2159 (4531)
LE
leegunnerCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1262-1766 (3028)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa52b5c90...7ec991
Slug
will-michael-olise-finish-5th-in-the-2026-ballon-d-or-20261019193417541