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YesNoYes
balthazar<$100NoNo
TimeTraveler<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Michael Olise finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 67%
Total Value
$38
Combined PnL
-$138.41
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,203
Combined PnL-$140.35
No4 traders
Total Value$38
Total Shares38
Combined PnL+$1.94
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $77.89 | — | -$139 | 53% 16-14 (30) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $36.06 | $38 | +$1.94 | 54% 302-257 (559) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.34 | — | -$1.34 | 63% 732-423 (1155) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 20216-12621 (32837) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 2698-3242 (5940) |
TimeTraveler<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | — | — | +$0 | 41% 1925-2728 (4653) |
NI
niceqqqqq3CTR<$100Invested
$77.89
Value
—
PnL
-$139
Record
53%
16-14 (30)
0X
0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100Invested
$36.06
Value
$38
PnL
+$1.94
Record
54%
302-257 (559)
P1
P1kasoCTR<$100Invested
$1.34
Value
—
PnL
-$1.34
Record
63%
732-423 (1155)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
20216-12621 (32837)
BI
Bigggggggg<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
2698-3242 (5940)
TimeTraveler<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1925-2728 (4653)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x7c89bece...5c55e6
Slug
will-michael-olise-finish-4th-in-the-2026-ballon-d-or-20261019193417541