Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Michael Olise finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $16 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$15.55

Combined PnL

-$286

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 0.8¢

-54% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$15.55

Total Shares20,877

Combined PnL-$286

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$353.1	$9.17	-$343.94	62% 20089-12550 (32639)
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$5.64	$3.51	+$15.63	53% 16-14 (30)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.87	$2.62	+$45.05	44% 1234-1548 (2782)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.01	$0.25	-$2.76	64% 728-417 (1145)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$353.1

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$343.94

Record

62%

20089-12550 (32639)

niceqqqqq3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.64

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$15.63

Record

53%

16-14 (30)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$45.05

Record

44%

1234-1548 (2782)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2.76

Record

64%

728-417 (1145)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5195.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5295.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.