Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Michael Olise finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$4.27
-$18.21
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.05 | $2.05 | -$1.01 | 63% 671-390 (1061) |
 sciuboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $14.48 | $1.15 | -$13.33 | 48% 177-192 (369) |
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2 | $1 | -$1 | 52% 13-12 (25) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.74 | $0.04 | -$1.7 | 57% 2243-1706 (3949) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.2 | $0.03 | -$1.17 | 65% 4145-2190 (6335) |
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$1.01
Record
63%
671-390 (1061)
sciuboiCTR<$100Invested
$14.48
Value
$1.15
PnL
-$13.33
Record
48%
177-192 (369)
Invested
$2
Value
$1
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
13-12 (25)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.7
Record
57%
2243-1706 (3949)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.17
Record
65%
4145-2190 (6335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.