Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Michael Eamon win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 1.0¢ · $499 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
$499.07
$118.82
63.4¢ → 1¢
-98% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $184.55 | $371.25 | +$190.85 | 55% 42-34 (76) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 6¢ | $12.72 | $124.22 | +$150.19 | 18% 3740-16589 (20329) |
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 65.1¢ | $228 | $3.5 | -$222.22 | 56% 800-616 (1416) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.1 | $0.1 | +$0 | 52% 2373-2161 (4534) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.