Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 2.50%?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $58 held · ends Jan 9, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 9, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$58

Combined PnL

-$7.38

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$54.85

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$2.37

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.86

Total Shares327

Combined PnL-$9.75

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 91¢	$22.75	$24.94	+$2.19	33% 5748-11663 (17411)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.77	$19.94	+$0.17	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.98	+$0.02	47% 2449-2762 (5211)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$9.9	$2.45	-$7.44	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.15	$0.23	-$1.92	33% 3273-6508 (9781)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.56	$0.18	-$0.39	18% 3414-15601 (19015)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$24.94

PnL

+$2.19

Record

33%

5748-11663 (17411)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.77

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$0.17

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2449-2762 (5211)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.9

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$7.44

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.92

Record

33%

3273-6508 (9781)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.39

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.