Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 36¢ · $856 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$856.43
$127.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
277h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $845.31 | $572.03 | +$36.96 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.3¢ | $471.87 | $434.55 | -$94.11 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $86.65 | $137.48 | +$131.07 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $1.18 | $155.56 | +$109.12 | 52% 999-914 (1913) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $81.22 | $79.97 | -$3.34 | 57% 14829-11196 (26025) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | Yes | $40.76 | $40.76 | +$22.7 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $8.83 | $8.11 | -$0.71 | 52% 224-206 (430) |
Invested
$845.31
Value
$572.03
PnL
+$36.96
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.18
Value
$155.56
PnL
+$109.12
Record
52%
999-914 (1913)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$81.22
Value
$79.97
PnL
-$3.34
Record
57%
14829-11196 (26025)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$40.76
Value
$40.76
PnL
+$22.7
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.11
PnL
-$0.71
Record
52%
224-206 (430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.