Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 20¢ · $294 held · ends Oct 31

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$293.87

Combined PnL

-$13.37

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 19.5¢

-70% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$104.35

Total Shares185

Combined PnL-$26.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$36.36

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$13.14

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 66¢	$184.82	$153.16	-$23.39	49% 269-278 (547)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.8¢	$54.91	$122.53	+$67.64
└ No leg	Noavg 66¢	$101.06	$30.63	-$91.03
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$75.4	$73.45	-$1.95	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$92.82	$30.9	-$24.56	53% 243-213 (456)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$16.56	$29.43	+$12.87	33% 3273-6508 (9781)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$18.46	$6.93	+$0.27	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$184.82

Value

$153.16

PnL

-$23.39

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

Yes$54.9135.8¢+$67.64

No$101.0666¢-$91.03

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$75.4

Value

$73.45

PnL

-$1.95

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Invested

$92.82

Value

$30.9

PnL

-$24.56

Record

53%

243-213 (456)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.56

Value

$29.43

PnL

+$12.87

Record

33%

3273-6508 (9781)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.46

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.2%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$372.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

472.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.