Will Melchie Dumornay finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 71¢ · $539 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$538.76

Combined PnL

-$214.58

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 71.4¢

-28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$518.32

Total Shares726

Combined PnL-$205.16

No1 trader

Total Value$20.44

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$9.42

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$604.24	$431.88	-$171.75	99% 12422-177 (12599)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$71.4	-$28.5	82% 226-50 (276)
SocialistaCTR<$100	Noavg 25.5¢	$10.45	$20.44	-$9.42	63% 2632-1550 (4182)
TH thoodr<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$21	$15.04	-$4.91	96% 582-23 (605)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$604.24

Value

$431.88

PnL

-$171.75

Record

99%

12422-177 (12599)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.9

Value

$71.4

PnL

-$28.5

Record

82%

226-50 (276)

SocialistaCTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$9.42

Record

63%

2632-1550 (4182)

thoodr<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$4.91

Record

96%

582-23 (605)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.