Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$4.5K
$777.96
68.7¢ → 84.3¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Noavg 68.7¢ | $3.6K | $4.4K | +$805.99 | 53% 3029-2635 (5664) |
SI singularitymanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $75.33 | $44.64 | -$30.69 | 42% 137-191 (328) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $14.05 | $16.71 | +$2.66 | 60% 792-534 (1326) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.