Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
$63.63
83.9¢ → 91.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
585h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Warren-Buffett | Noavg 86.9¢ | $988.19 | $1.0K | +$52.04 | 65% 850-457 (1307) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 73¢ | $295.26 | $355.93 | +$74.83 | 53% 1040-935 (1975) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 89¢ | $178 | $183 | +$5 | 73% 2897-1055 (3952) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $132.72 | $70.08 | -$62.64 | 36% 1994-3513 (5507) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $10.41 | $4.8 | -$5.61 | 39% 1753-2717 (4470) |
Warren-BuffettInvested
$988.19
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$52.04
Record
65%
850-457 (1307)
Invested
$295.26
Value
$355.93
PnL
+$74.83
Record
53%
1040-935 (1975)
Tenebrus7Invested
$178
Value
$183
PnL
+$5
Record
73%
2897-1055 (3952)
Invested
$132.72
Value
$70.08
PnL
-$62.64
Record
36%
1994-3513 (5507)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$5.61
Record
39%
1753-2717 (4470)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.