Will Martin Ritsma win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$104.96
42.3¢ → 53¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $480.98 | $287.36 | +$54 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.9¢ | $114.61 | $164.76 | +$82.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $141.12 | $122.6 | -$28.67 | |
 paddaa | Noavg 46.7¢ | $320 | $249.93 | -$73.49 | 57% 797-607 (1404) |
 mrworldwide | Noavg 40¢ | $60 | $164.25 | +$1.5 | 67% 702-340 (1042) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 43.6¢ | $187.8 | $157.31 | -$30.49 | 52% 1004-922 (1926) |
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 36.1¢ | $147.63 | $147.22 | -$0.41 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $8.29 | $1.62 | -$2.08 | 80% 10425-2657 (13082) |
Invested
$480.98
Value
$287.36
PnL
+$54
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
Both legs:
paddaaInvested
$320
Value
$249.93
PnL
-$73.49
Record
57%
797-607 (1404)
mrworldwideInvested
$60
Value
$164.25
PnL
+$1.5
Record
67%
702-340 (1042)
Invested
$187.8
Value
$157.31
PnL
-$30.49
Record
52%
1004-922 (1926)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$147.63
Value
$147.22
PnL
-$0.41
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$2.08
Record
80%
10425-2657 (13082)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.