Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 11¢ · $749 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$748.78
-$18.57
11.5¢ → 11¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 11¢ | $550 | $549.44 | +$3.03 | 52% 1017-927 (1944) |
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 89¢ | $307.37 | $151.91 | +$5.54 | 67% 703-342 (1045) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $29.82 | $30.51 | +$0.69 | 56% 1157-918 (2075) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.7¢ | $10 | $8.66 | -$1.34 | 57% 5415-4028 (9443) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.3¢ | $34.75 | $8.25 | -$26.5 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
Invested
$550
Value
$549.44
PnL
+$3.03
Record
52%
1017-927 (1944)
mrworldwideInvested
$307.37
Value
$151.91
PnL
+$5.54
Record
67%
703-342 (1045)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$29.82
Value
$30.51
PnL
+$0.69
Record
56%
1157-918 (2075)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.66
PnL
-$1.34
Record
57%
5415-4028 (9443)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$34.75
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$26.5
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.