Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 18, 2027

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Sun, Apr 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$83.98

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 82.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,999

Combined PnL-$83.85

No1 trader

Total Value$2.64

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.13

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 85.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$63.7	57% 15077-11501 (26578)
Istaroth	Yesavg 84¢	$565.82	$560.34	-$3.82	42% 269-368 (637)
Donny.T	Yesavg 83.3¢	$337.74	$338.47	-$3.33	72% 473-181 (654)
TBill1	Yesavg 89¢	$178	$167	-$13	45% 144-177 (321)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 17.3¢	$2.78	$2.64	-$0.13	57% 12334-9317 (21651)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,594.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$63.7

Record

57%

15077-11501 (26578)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$565.82

Value

$560.34

PnL

-$3.82

Record

42%

269-368 (637)

Donny.T

Yes

Invested

$337.74

Value

$338.47

PnL

-$3.33

Record

72%

473-181 (654)

TBill1

Yes

Invested

$178

Value

$167

PnL

-$13

Record

45%

144-177 (321)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

12334-9317 (21651)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.1%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.