Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.9K
-$106.53
87.5¢ → 85¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 88.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$115 | 77% 1341-396 (1737) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Yesavg 81.3¢ | $94 | $94.05 | +$0.05 | 72% 467-179 (646) |
 ScottyNooo<$100 | Yesavg 85.6¢ | $46.55 | $44.4 | -$2.15 | 51% 1526-1494 (3020) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.9¢ | $10.55 | $14.1 | +$3.55 | 36% 1955-3427 (5382) |
 mombil<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $3.26 | $10.28 | +$7.02 | 55% 1184-964 (2148) |
Invested
$1,764.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$115
Record
77%
1341-396 (1737)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$94
Value
$94.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
72%
467-179 (646)
ScottyNooo<$100Invested
$46.55
Value
$44.4
PnL
-$2.15
Record
51%
1526-1494 (3020)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$3.55
Record
36%
1955-3427 (5382)
mombil<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
$10.28
PnL
+$7.02
Record
55%
1184-964 (2148)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.