Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $352 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$351.76
$180.43
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Yes | $254.67 | $254.67 | +$175.7 | 57% 797-607 (1404) |
 HorribleWorkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $55.65 | $49.02 | -$6.63 | 58% 414-296 (710) |
 AllByMyseIfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $31.1 | $27.38 | -$3.72 | 65% 665-354 (1019) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.21 | $18.96 | +$14.75 | 57% 2381-1770 (4151) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $1.42 | $1.74 | +$0.32 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$254.67
Value
$254.67
PnL
+$175.7
Record
57%
797-607 (1404)
HorribleWorkCTR<$100Invested
$55.65
Value
$49.02
PnL
-$6.63
Record
58%
414-296 (710)
AllByMyseIfCTR<$100Invested
$31.1
Value
$27.38
PnL
-$3.72
Record
65%
665-354 (1019)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$4.21
Value
$18.96
PnL
+$14.75
Record
57%
2381-1770 (4151)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.32
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.