Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$306.7

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 74¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$647.94

Total Shares888

Combined PnL-$11.88

Yes2 traders

Total Value$404.35

Total Shares1,528

Combined PnL+$318.58

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

543h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
viniiARB<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$6.1K	$3.0K	+$423.12	74% 2413-866 (3279)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.9¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$403.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.6¢	$617.74	$626.98	+$19.42
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 79.4¢	$634.69	$622.46	-$12.23	57% 14725-11079 (25804)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 23.4¢	$403.31	$213.57	+$259.88	36% 13086-22900 (35986)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$8.77	$190.78	+$58.7	21% 91-340 (431)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 69¢	$25.13	$25.48	+$0.35	47% 1733-1932 (3665)

viniiARB<$100

Invested

$6,068.24

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$423.12

Record

74%

2413-866 (3279)

Both legs:

No$2,197.2769.9¢+$403.71

Yes$617.7425.6¢+$19.42

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$634.69

Value

$622.46

PnL

-$12.23

Record

57%

14725-11079 (25804)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$403.31

Value

$213.57

PnL

+$259.88

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.77

Value

$190.78

PnL

+$58.7

Record

21%

91-340 (431)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$25.13

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

1733-1932 (3665)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

543h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.