Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 99¢ · $578 held · ends Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$578.04

Combined PnL

$489.02

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$573.33

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$518.96

No3 traders

Total Value$4.71

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$29.94

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR dromedaryy	Yesavg 6.4¢	$23.92	$366.41	+$342.49	34% 23-44 (67)
crypto-basenji	Yesavg 3.2¢	$5.13	$142.35	+$137.23	39% 148-230 (378)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.37	$52.42	+$38.28	17% 3161-15059 (18220)
Relaccsed<$100	Yesavg 89.8¢	$11.27	$12.15	+$0.97	56% 1143-913 (2056)
viniiCTR<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$3.62	$3.37	-$0.26	74% 2425-869 (3294)
AJ AJSVCTR	Noavg 94.3¢	$231.54	$0.88	-$29.57	36% 13289-23211 (36500)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$0.58	$0.46	-$0.11	49% 66-68 (134)

dromedaryy

Yes

Invested

$23.92

Value

$366.41

PnL

+$342.49

Record

34%

23-44 (67)

crypto-basenji

Yes

Invested

$5.13

Value

$142.35

PnL

+$137.23

Record

39%

148-230 (378)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$52.42

PnL

+$38.28

Record

17%

3161-15059 (18220)

Relaccsed<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.27

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$0.97

Record

56%

1143-913 (2056)

viniiCTR<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.37

PnL

-$0.26

Record

74%

2425-869 (3294)

AJSVCTR

Invested

$231.54

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$29.57

Record

36%

13289-23211 (36500)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.