Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$179.55

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 90.1¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,169

Combined PnL-$58.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$430.87

Total Shares4,352

Combined PnL+$238.06

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DonationsReceiver	Noavg 96¢	$959.04	$900.1	-$58.94	61% 230-145 (375)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$175.69	$427.99	+$252.63	53% 86-76 (162)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 99.1¢	$168.55	$153.17	+$0.43	77% 1336-396 (1732)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$273.14	$2.88	-$14.57	36% 13223-23096 (36319)

DonationsReceiver

Invested

$959.04

Value

$900.1

PnL

-$58.94

Record

61%

230-145 (375)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Yes

Invested

$175.69

Value

$427.99

PnL

+$252.63

Record

53%

86-76 (162)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$168.55

Value

$153.17

PnL

+$0.43

Record

77%

1336-396 (1732)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$273.14

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$14.57

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.