Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 2.2¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$639.23

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 2.2¢

-97% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,300

Combined PnL+$995.04

No4 traders

Total Value$360.04

Total Shares807

Combined PnL-$355.8

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

246h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii	Yesavg 7.1¢	$92.68	$1.1K	+$995.04	74% 2417-866 (3283)
AJ AJSVCTR	Noavg 83.4¢	$754.74	$314.15	-$336.5	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$24.51	$27.06	+$2.55	17% 3156-14947 (18103)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$47.35	$14.72	-$23.43	56% 3445-2681 (6126)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 27.8¢	$2.53	$4.11	+$1.58	—

vinii

Yes

Invested

$92.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$995.04

Record

74%

2417-866 (3283)

AJSVCTR

Invested

$754.74

Value

$314.15

PnL

-$336.5

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$27.06

PnL

+$2.55

Record

17%

3156-14947 (18103)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$47.35

Value

$14.72

PnL

-$23.43

Record

56%

3445-2681 (6126)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.53

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$1.58

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

246h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2908.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

3008.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.