Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$21.81

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 78¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,177

Combined PnL+$7.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$326.25

Total Shares1,299

Combined PnL+$14.27

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 70¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$68.64	60% 181-123 (304)
crypto-basenji	Noavg 80¢	$267.99	$287.99	+$20	39% 148-230 (378)
RatspootinCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$139.86	$249.75	+$34.96	63% 1006-584 (1590)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 75¢	$716.13	$157.29	+$50.07	36% 13086-22900 (35986)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.4¢	$97.19	$76.5	-$20.69	53% 1771-1563 (3334)
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$59.47	$65.96	+$6.49	—
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 76¢	$30.92	$30.52	-$0.41	38% 67-108 (175)
16 0x1655...08e1<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.88	+$0.02	—

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$2,402.25

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$68.64

Record

60%

181-123 (304)

crypto-basenji

Invested

$267.99

Value

$287.99

PnL

+$20

Record

39%

148-230 (378)

RatspootinCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.86

Value

$249.75

PnL

+$34.96

Record

63%

1006-584 (1590)

AJSV

Invested

$716.13

Value

$157.29

PnL

+$50.07

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.19

Value

$76.5

PnL

-$20.69

Record

53%

1771-1563 (3334)

0x005e...6d8e<$100

Invested

$59.47

Value

$65.96

PnL

+$6.49

Record

—

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$30.92

Value

$30.52

PnL

-$0.41

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

0x1655...08e1<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.7%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.