Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 6–8%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $235 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$234.52
-$42.07
3.6¢ → 3¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $270.94 | $225.94 | -$45 | 54% 960-821 (1781) |
16 0x1655...08e1<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.85 | -$0.14 | — |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $45.21 | $3.34 | +$3.07 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.