Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $336 held · ends Oct 26

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$336.18

Combined PnL

$22.3

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 97.5¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$335.8

Total Shares368

Combined PnL+$39.13

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$16.83

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 75¢	$150	$172.9	+$22.9	46% 1592-1842 (3434)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 90.7¢	$123.17	$135.25	+$12.08	—
16 0x1655...08e1<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$23.77	$23.24	-$0.53	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$77.02	$4.41	+$4.68	56% 3445-2681 (6126)
LiquidatedDegenCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$17.21	$0.38	-$16.83	59% 1036-717 (1753)

123987456

Invested

$150

Value

$172.9

PnL

+$22.9

Record

46%

1592-1842 (3434)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$123.17

Value

$135.25

PnL

+$12.08

Record

—

0x1655...08e1<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$23.24

PnL

-$0.53

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$77.02

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$4.68

Record

56%

3445-2681 (6126)

LiquidatedDegenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.21

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$16.83

Record

59%

1036-717 (1753)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.