Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$154.15

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 97.7¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,523

Combined PnL+$57.62

No4 traders

Total Value$107.22

Total Shares416

Combined PnL+$96.53

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626	Yesavg 80¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$42.98	58% 665-489 (1154)
AL almost-never	Yesavg 98.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$6.04	44% 154-198 (352)
MA Maplesky	Yesavg 1.3¢	$6.85	$315.21	+$4.18	— 1-1 (2)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 89.7¢	$272.39	$284.39	+$12	58% 156-114 (270)
AJ AJSVCTR	Noavg 69.5¢	$417.27	$71.26	+$34.88	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 32.5¢	$53.69	$29.9	-$23.8	—
LiquidatedDegen<$100	Yesavg 50.9¢	$25.18	$29.69	+$4.5	59% 1036-717 (1753)
16 0x1655...08e1CTR<$100	Noavg 23.8¢	$6.58	$5.01	-$1.57	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 24.6¢	$514.45	$1.05	+$87.02	56% 3445-2681 (6126)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$2,084

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$42.98

Record

58%

665-489 (1154)

almost-never

Yes

Invested

$1,021.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.04

Record

44%

154-198 (352)

Maplesky

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$315.21

PnL

+$4.18

Record

—

1-1 (2)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$272.39

Value

$284.39

PnL

+$12

Record

58%

156-114 (270)

AJSVCTR

Invested

$417.27

Value

$71.26

PnL

+$34.88

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$53.69

Value

$29.9

PnL

-$23.8

Record

—

LiquidatedDegen<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.18

Value

$29.69

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

1036-717 (1753)

0x1655...08e1CTR<$100

Invested

$6.58

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$1.57

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$514.45

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$87.02

Record

56%

3445-2681 (6126)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.