Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$3.4K
$103.37
96.5¢ → 86¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 97.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$47.18 | 74% 2583-928 (3511) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$58.91 | — 0-1 (1) |
 Socialista<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $17.2 | -$2.72 | 63% 2542-1510 (4052) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.