Will Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 10

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$430.11

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares6,817

Combined PnL$-2.0K

No3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares7,028

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SY Syrrok	Yesavg 99¢	$5.6K	$3.6K	$-2.0K	62% 1764-1074 (2838)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 1.4¢	$97.77	$2.5K	+$2.4K	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.58	99% 12306-175 (12481)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$36.99	$50	+$13.01	53% 1976-1746 (3722)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$8.79	$29.1	+$20.31	53% 6100-5351 (11451)
P1 P1kaso<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$24.59	$24.39	-$0.2	64% 718-402 (1120)

Syrrok

Yes

Invested

$5,555

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

62%

1764-1074 (2838)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$97.77

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$1,166.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.58

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$36.99

Value

$50

PnL

+$13.01

Record

53%

1976-1746 (3722)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$29.1

PnL

+$20.31

Record

53%

6100-5351 (11451)

P1kaso<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.59

Value

$24.39

PnL

-$0.2

Record

64%

718-402 (1120)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.