Back to Markets
Yes
clazzy1CTR<$100Yes
balthazar<$100NoNo
Istaroth<$100NoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$79.77
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares320
Combined PnL-$79.77
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR MrConsistencyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $71.44 | — | -$82.77 | 42% 469-647 (1116) |
clazzy1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.04 | — | +$3 | 62% 345-211 (556) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 3143-6143 (9286) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
MR
MrConsistencyCTR<$100Invested
$71.44
Value
—
PnL
-$82.77
Record
42%
469-647 (1116)
clazzy1CTR<$100Invested
$3.04
Value
—
PnL
+$3
Record
62%
345-211 (556)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
3143-6143 (9286)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x97fd8ced...7de4d2
Slug
will-lorenzo-pazolini-win-the-2026-espirito-santo-gubernatorial-second-round-by-10-15