Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$1.5K
$31.6
95.8¢ → 99.6¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $907.25 | $955.81 | +$26.35 | 89% 4554-541 (5095) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Noavg 99.6¢ | $341.72 | $341.72 | +$0 | 49% 134-140 (274) |
 sciuboi | Noavg 95.4¢ | $187.57 | $184.29 | +$5.25 | 43% 184-247 (431) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.