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No
Rex416NoNo
sciuboiCTR<$100Yes
balthazar<$100NoNo
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Lionel Messi finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Resolved No. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 75%
Total Value
$493.31
Combined PnL
$71.7
Smart Money Signal
No
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$493.31
Total Shares493
Combined PnL+$78.9
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares60
Combined PnL-$7.2
No — 71%Yes — 29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NI niceqqqqq3 | Noavg 91¢ | $255.25 | $313 | +$57.75 | 53% 16-14 (30) |
Rex416 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $136.59 | $153.66 | +$17.07 | 57% 2474-1837 (4311) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $22.57 | $26.65 | +$4.08 | 54% 302-257 (559) |
sciuboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 42% 184-253 (437) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 20216-12621 (32837) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 83.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 2698-3242 (5940) |
TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 41% 1925-2728 (4653) |
NI
niceqqqqq3Invested
$255.25
Value
$313
PnL
+$57.75
Record
53%
16-14 (30)
Rex416Invested
$136.59
Value
$153.66
PnL
+$17.07
Record
57%
2474-1837 (4311)
0X
0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100Invested
$22.57
Value
$26.65
PnL
+$4.08
Record
54%
302-257 (559)
sciuboiCTR<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
42%
184-253 (437)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
20216-12621 (32837)
BI
Bigggggggg<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
2698-3242 (5940)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1925-2728 (4653)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1ced0623...02155e
Slug
will-lionel-messi-finish-4th-in-the-2026-ballon-d-or-20261019193417541