Will Lionel Messi finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.3K
$136.74
92.8¢ → 90.6¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 92.9¢ | $415.94 | $408.1 | -$7.84 | 47% 2498-2824 (5322) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $309.66 | $376.79 | +$67.13 | 33% 3292-6726 (10018) |
NI niceqqqqq3 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $346.9 | $327.95 | +$3.96 | 54% 14-12 (26) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $142.69 | $191.12 | +$48.43 | 63% 16724-10007 (26731) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $13.02 | $38.08 | +$25.06 | 18% 3455-15751 (19206) |
Invested
$415.94
Value
$408.1
PnL
-$7.84
Record
47%
2498-2824 (5322)
Invested
$309.66
Value
$376.79
PnL
+$67.13
Record
33%
3292-6726 (10018)
Invested
$346.9
Value
$327.95
PnL
+$3.96
Record
54%
14-12 (26)
balthazarCTRInvested
$142.69
Value
$191.12
PnL
+$48.43
Record
63%
16724-10007 (26731)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$13.02
Value
$38.08
PnL
+$25.06
Record
18%
3455-15751 (19206)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.