Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 46¢ · $611 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$611.15
-$304.15
64¢ → 46¢
-28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
4714h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 62.2¢ | $856.54 | $501.78 | -$251.32 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $71.26 | $54.99 | -$16.27 | 52% 2050-1928 (3978) |
 pup1CTR<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $74.51 | $42 | -$32.51 | 46% 1951-2297 (4248) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $14.98 | $8.27 | -$6.71 | 33% 5670-11645 (17315) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Yes | $3.73 | $3.73 | +$2.67 | 78% 8337-2300 (10637) |
Invested
$856.54
Value
$501.78
PnL
-$251.32
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Invested
$71.26
Value
$54.99
PnL
-$16.27
Record
52%
2050-1928 (3978)
pup1CTR<$100Invested
$74.51
Value
$42
PnL
-$32.51
Record
46%
1951-2297 (4248)
Invested
$14.98
Value
$8.27
PnL
-$6.71
Record
33%
5670-11645 (17315)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$2.67
Record
78%
8337-2300 (10637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.