Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lane Hutson record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 34¢ · $152 held · ends Apr 30, 2027

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Fri, Apr 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$152.16

Combined PnL

$28.14

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$124.27

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$38.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$27.89

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$10.08

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JustADonk	Noavg 55¢	$65.91	$104.26	+$38.35	55% 855-710 (1565)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.12	50% 269-269 (538)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$19.8	$20	+$0.2	36% 13446-23443 (36889)
KnureKnumeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$10.12	$5.98	-$4.14	48% 395-427 (822)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 54.7¢	$8.06	$1.92	-$6.14	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

JustADonk

Invested

$65.91

Value

$104.26

PnL

+$38.35

Record

55%

855-710 (1565)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.2

Record

36%

13446-23443 (36889)

KnureKnumeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$4.14

Record

48%

395-427 (822)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.06

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$6.14

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.