Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Young Talent of the Year award?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$13.1

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,101

Combined PnL-$21.85

No3 traders

Total Value$155.91

Total Shares1,199

Combined PnL+$8.76

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Yesavg 85.2¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$45.97	99% 9887-45 (9932)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$525.18	$457.37	-$67.82	99% 12306-175 (12481)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 3.4¢	$19.73	$76.42	+$56.68	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
debasedCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$94.35	$72.15	-$22.2	59% 2278-1604 (3882)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$36.32	$7.34	-$25.73	53% 6100-5351 (11451)

looppau

Yes

Invested

$2,194.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$45.97

Record

99%

9887-45 (9932)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$525.18

Value

$457.37

PnL

-$67.82

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$19.73

Value

$76.42

PnL

+$56.68

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

debasedCTR<$100

Invested

$94.35

Value

$72.15

PnL

-$22.2

Record

59%

2278-1604 (3882)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$36.32

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$25.73

Record

53%

6100-5351 (11451)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.