Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$2.8K
-$635.6
31.3¢ → 21¢
-33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 sciuboiCTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $2.0K | $1.3K | -$703.43 | 47% 183-209 (392) |
BO borntoolate.eth | Noavg 76¢ | $740.07 | $769.28 | +$29.21 | 75% 305-103 (408) |
 balthazar | Noavg 76.2¢ | $548.59 | $568.45 | +$19.86 | 62% 19399-11989 (31388) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $204.27 | $133.79 | +$18.76 | 41% 1918-2712 (4630) |
sciuboiCTRInvested
$1,999.34
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$703.43
Record
47%
183-209 (392)
Invested
$740.07
Value
$769.28
PnL
+$29.21
Record
75%
305-103 (408)
balthazarInvested
$548.59
Value
$568.45
PnL
+$19.86
Record
62%
19399-11989 (31388)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$204.27
Value
$133.79
PnL
+$18.76
Record
41%
1918-2712 (4630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.