Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 96¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 16, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$7.9K
$794.62
86.3¢ → 96¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 86.1¢ | $6.9K | $5.4K | +$819.74 | — 1-1 (2) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 86.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$25.12 | 36% 273-494 (767) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.