Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$330.68

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 47¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,196

Combined PnL+$204.3

No2 traders

Total Value$350.86

Total Shares662

Combined PnL+$126.38

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 42.5¢	$3.2K	$2.2K	+$159.85	44% 1186-1495 (2681)
SocialistaCTR	Yesavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$44.45	62% 2322-1429 (3751)
OR OrwellFactory	Noavg 26¢	$151.54	$297.86	+$143.88	56% 309-242 (551)
Porx<$100	Noavg 69¢	$29.08	$53	-$17.5	66% 1429-741 (2170)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,247.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$159.85

Record

44%

1186-1495 (2681)

SocialistaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,186.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.45

Record

62%

2322-1429 (3751)

OrwellFactory

Invested

$151.54

Value

$297.86

PnL

+$143.88

Record

56%

309-242 (551)

Porx<$100

Invested

$29.08

Value

$53

PnL

-$17.5

Record

66%

1429-741 (2170)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.