Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kylian Mbappé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 19¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$243.19

Smart Money Entry

13.8¢ → 19¢

+38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares5,149

Combined PnL+$194.91

No2 traders

Total Value$110.63

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$48.28

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE PeAPAnieniLialaCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$500	$640.62	+$31.25	28% 238-613 (851)
sciuboiCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$142.78	$283.65	+$140.86	48% 178-192 (370)
US useruserlolCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$68.38	$116.82	+$22.79	46% 127-150 (277)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 78.1¢	$842.13	$102.61	+$48.28	56% 3386-2642 (6028)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 79¢	$8.03	$8.03	+$0	—

PeAPAnieniLialaCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$640.62

PnL

+$31.25

Record

28%

238-613 (851)

sciuboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.78

Value

$283.65

PnL

+$140.86

Record

48%

178-192 (370)

useruserlolCTR

Yes

Invested

$68.38

Value

$116.82

PnL

+$22.79

Record

46%

127-150 (277)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$842.13

Value

$102.61

PnL

+$48.28

Record

56%

3386-2642 (6028)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.