Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$6.3K
$42.33
93.3¢ → 96.7¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 93.2¢ | $3.9K | $5.4K | +$200.72 | 77% 1330-396 (1726) |
AV aviato | Noavg 93.5¢ | $531.72 | $550.01 | +$18.29 | 86% 2370-397 (2767) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.7¢ | $253.63 | $261.66 | +$8.16 | 80% 10079-2570 (12649) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $89.62 | $110.61 | -$184.84 | 56% 951-745 (1696) |
Invested
$3,912.62
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$200.72
Record
77%
1330-396 (1726)
Invested
$531.72
Value
$550.01
PnL
+$18.29
Record
86%
2370-397 (2767)
Invested
$253.63
Value
$261.66
PnL
+$8.16
Record
80%
10079-2570 (12649)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$89.62
Value
$110.61
PnL
-$184.84
Record
56%
951-745 (1696)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.