Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.4K
$609.25
62.7¢ → 90.3¢
+44% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
534h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 52.8¢ | $730.96 | $1.3K | +$518.64 | 50% 1778-1808 (3586) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 78.5¢ | $905.88 | $744.75 | +$29 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 70.3¢ | $215.29 | $276.78 | +$61.49 | 56% 3387-2644 (6031) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $56.89 | $63.71 | +$6.82 | 74% 2409-865 (3274) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $36.7 | $30 | -$6.71 | 51% 107-104 (211) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$730.96
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$518.64
Record
50%
1778-1808 (3586)
Invested
$905.88
Value
$744.75
PnL
+$29
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Invested
$215.29
Value
$276.78
PnL
+$61.49
Record
56%
3387-2644 (6031)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$56.89
Value
$63.71
PnL
+$6.82
Record
74%
2409-865 (3274)
Invested
$36.7
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.71
Record
51%
107-104 (211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.