Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 81¢ · $674 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$674
$55.17
72.7¢ → 80.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapital | Noavg 72¢ | $431.22 | $479.14 | +$47.91 | 75% 445-152 (597) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 75.5¢ | $102.5 | $100 | -$0.55 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $85.56 | $79.62 | +$16.62 | 36% 13957-24692 (38649) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $10.52 | $10.86 | +$0.34 | 57% 11904-9099 (21003) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 82.1¢ | $231.68 | $4.62 | -$9.15 | 42% 5126-7041 (12167) |
KimchiCapitalInvested
$431.22
Value
$479.14
PnL
+$47.91
Record
75%
445-152 (597)
IstarothInvested
$102.5
Value
$100
PnL
-$0.55
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
Invested
$85.56
Value
$79.62
PnL
+$16.62
Record
36%
13957-24692 (38649)
Invested
$10.52
Value
$10.86
PnL
+$0.34
Record
57%
11904-9099 (21003)
Invested
$231.68
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$9.15
Record
42%
5126-7041 (12167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.