Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $14 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$13.68
-$376.05
1.2¢ → 0.1¢
-96% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $16.17 | $9.98 | -$370.55 | 62% 20089-12550 (32639) |
NI niceqqqqq3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1 | $2.89 | -$6.34 | 53% 16-14 (30) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.4 | $0.8 | +$0.4 | 44% 1234-1548 (2782) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.46 | $0.01 | +$0.44 | 55% 302-251 (553) |
balthazarCTRInvested
$16.17
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$370.55
Record
62%
20089-12550 (32639)
Invested
$1
Value
$2.89
PnL
-$6.34
Record
53%
16-14 (30)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
44%
1234-1548 (2782)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.44
Record
55%
302-251 (553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.