Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $130 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$129.69
-$183.04
1.3¢ → 0.4¢
-68% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
151h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $266.13 | $55.02 | -$211.1 | 63% 13467-7784 (21251) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $3.42 | $41.04 | +$37.62 | 44% 1186-1501 (2687) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $12.08 | $18.26 | -$9.41 | 33% 2493-5058 (7551) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $15.3 | $15.3 | +$0 | 49% 66-68 (134) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.06 | $0.06 | -$0.15 | 57% 2349-1749 (4098) |
balthazarCTRInvested
$266.13
Value
$55.02
PnL
-$211.1
Record
63%
13467-7784 (21251)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$41.04
PnL
+$37.62
Record
44%
1186-1501 (2687)
Invested
$12.08
Value
$18.26
PnL
-$9.41
Record
33%
2493-5058 (7551)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$15.3
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
66-68 (134)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.15
Record
57%
2349-1749 (4098)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.