Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$4.1K
$259.95
89.9¢ → 94¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seutervoinen | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$55.47 | 85% 300-55 (355) |
 JSG3 | Yesavg 84.8¢ | $964.29 | $1.1K | +$128.22 | — 11-8 (19) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107 | Yesavg 93.9¢ | $550.11 | $562.48 | +$12.37 | 50% 2527-2557 (5084) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $467.82 | $489.39 | +$63.89 | 66% 555-285 (840) |
SeutervoinenInvested
$1,929.96
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$55.47
Record
85%
300-55 (355)
JSG3Invested
$964.29
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$128.22
Record
—
11-8 (19)
Invested
$550.11
Value
$562.48
PnL
+$12.37
Record
50%
2527-2557 (5084)
Invested
$467.82
Value
$489.39
PnL
+$63.89
Record
66%
555-285 (840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.