Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Keanin Loomis win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.4K
$716.2
39.5¢ → 47.5¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
140h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $277.37 | $644.89 | +$367.52 | 57% 789-602 (1391) |
 Rex416CTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $183.04 | $308.2 | +$125.16 | 57% 2308-1724 (4032) |
 mrworldwideCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $60 | $207 | +$107.25 | 67% 677-337 (1014) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Noavg 33.9¢ | $49.64 | $131.04 | +$81.41 | 47% 1717-1922 (3639) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.2¢ | $55.14 | $90 | +$34.86 | 36% 12900-22608 (35508) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$277.37
Value
$644.89
PnL
+$367.52
Record
57%
789-602 (1391)
Rex416CTRInvested
$183.04
Value
$308.2
PnL
+$125.16
Record
57%
2308-1724 (4032)
mrworldwideCTRInvested
$60
Value
$207
PnL
+$107.25
Record
67%
677-337 (1014)
Invested
$49.64
Value
$131.04
PnL
+$81.41
Record
47%
1717-1922 (3639)
Invested
$55.14
Value
$90
PnL
+$34.86
Record
36%
12900-22608 (35508)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.