Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $92 held · ends Oct 24, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$91.89
-$70.5
1¢ → 0.5¢
-43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
187h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoffeeDespiserCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $135.7 | $82.5 | -$53.21 | — |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $14.06 | $4.95 | -$9.11 | 7% 14-182 (196) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $9.29 | $3.27 | -$6.02 | 77% 8529-2565 (11094) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.87 | $0.66 | -$1.22 | 58% 98-70 (168) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.45 | $0.51 | -$0.94 | 32% 292-610 (902) |
CoffeeDespiserCTRInvested
$135.7
Value
$82.5
PnL
-$53.21
Record
—
Invested
$14.06
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$9.11
Record
7%
14-182 (196)
Invested
$9.29
Value
$3.27
PnL
-$6.02
Record
77%
8529-2565 (11094)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$1.22
Record
58%
98-70 (168)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.51
PnL
-$0.94
Record
32%
292-610 (902)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.