Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$3.9K
$72.01
97.8¢ → 99.3¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE segment3 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$60.18 | — 8-5 (13) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 96.2¢ | $378.71 | $392.18 | +$13.47 | 66% 773-402 (1175) |
 Tenebrus7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.4 | $0.75 | -$1.65 | 73% 2899-1056 (3955) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.